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Matthe Wryan, head of market strategy at Ebury in London, said the market is bracing not only for Trump's comfortable victory in the Electoral College, but also for the prospect of Republican control of Congress, which is key to determining whether the incoming president has the ability to force a change in U.S. government policy.
Ebury said that if Trump wins the US Presidential Election, the dollar could rise; if Harris wins, the dollar could fall. Ebury strategist Matthew Ryan said in the report that a Trump victory would boost the dollar, especially if Republicans also control the Senate and House of Representatives, as investors factor in U.S. tax cuts, higher Federal Reserve interest rates, rising trade protectionism and rising geopolitical risks. In a Harris victory, currency volatility would be more controlled. Ho...
Global financial services firm Ebury said it expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later, and hinted that further cuts would be gradual, which would provide some short-term support for the dollar. "A 50 basis point rate cut does not appear to be coming, and we do not believe the FOMC will be ready to fully support market pricing of interest rates," said Matthew Ryan, market strategist at Ebury, in a note. He said futures pricing for a 115 basis point rate cut this...
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